The Evening Before
Surprise Package is running in the first race at Limerick tomorrow. That may seem like a casual update, but it is filled with an import only race people can understand. Trainers love to saddle consecutive winners and it is all the better (and I would say this, wouldn’t I?) if they are at totally different meetings on successive days. If you don’t already know, you will be surmising that Peter won the last race at Fairyhouse today and you would be 100% correct. The horses are running well, the yard is in good form, Peter, normally pessimistic, is almost hopeful he could run a good race.
You may also believe, given the remarkable bond that Peter and I have established over the last eight years, that Peter would have ‘given me the word’ about his horse Ambitious Fellow in the last at Fairyhouse; you would be very mistaken in your beliefs. He did mention a few other horses in the race and, at one point, even bemoaned the fact that the eight-runner bumper hadn’t been divided to improve his chances. This was lifted straight from the Henry DeBromhead school of pessimism and is in stark contrast to Peter’s post-race interview in which he seemed to suggest, to my untrained ear, that this success was not entirely a surprise.
Tomorrow is a big day for Surprise Package: it is the day that he proves his win at Punchestown was no fluke. A day when he shows that 2 ½ miles is his perfect distance and that he has no animosity towards Kevin Sexton for being unable to win on him thus far. A day when I can use words like thus and not be considered out of touch and a dinosaur; well, ok, maybe not that revolutionary of a day but it’s going to a great day. I am feeling confident and am really looking forward to picking up the trophy and taking it back to Boston where it will sit in storage until our renovation is complete (should be under three years).
You may, with some justification, be wondering why we think he will run so well after his very lethargic and disappointing performance at Killarney. There are a couple of reasons:
1. He was found to have some lameness in his fetlock which could well have affected his confidence and ability to jump at his best, and
2. His ‘body’ was a little out of alignment
Both issues have now been resolved and we believe that, as racing people say, we can put a line through the Killarney performance.
My amateur veterinary thinking is that the pain (or perceived pain) from the fetlock may have caused him to over compensate and that he ‘twisted’ himself unnaturally to avoid the pain and actually made the problem bigger. It’s a bit like when I offer to get Kim her favorite milk because I have done absolutely nothing practical to support the family for weeks. And then, in this purely hypothetical example, what do I do? only turn up with the Unsweetened version as opposed to the Sweetened version! Which, if this had actually happened, would have seen the old package sitting in the fridge winking at me as I proudly put the new one away.
Horses, unlike wives, cannot talk and that actually makes the situation worse. We are working on the basis that we have medicated, treated and manipulated the horse to such a degree that none of our identified issues could possibly remain. There is, of course, the remote possibility that it could be something completely different, but we don’t think so. We were worried that Surprise Package may actually associate galloping or jumping with the pain he had experienced and that the problem may be more psychological than physical. Fortunately, he appears to have a poor memory and is jumping in his schooling sessions like he hasn’t a care in the world.
So…we may have put a ‘line through it” but it doesn’t appear that other people have: the current odds are a best-priced 15/2 and that compares to the favourite Off Your Rocco (I know…silly name) who is 7/4. You may recognize the name, Off Your Rocco, and ask the obvious rhetorical question:
“ Wasn’t he the one who finished 42 lengths behind you at Galway, over a distance short of your best, and now he meets you on four pounds worse terms on ground softer than he would like?”
Ok..so, perhaps, not that obvious, but totally appropriate all the same. There is an easy explanation apparently: you have to put a line through his Galway performance.
Interesting, because we are putting a line through the Killarney performance and are convinced that you will see a very different Surprise Package tomorrow: the ground , while softer than ideal for us, is much more suitable than for most of the other horses, the distance of just over 2 ½ miles is ideal and Limerick is a much more galloping course than either Galway or Killarney; a bit like Punchestown where he won easily, come to think about it! How come everyone isn’t letting us put a line through it? It’s our line and we will do whatever we want to do with it!
Of course, you may counter that Ballywilliam Boy beat us almost as easily at Navan as we beat Off Your Rocco at Galway so why wouldn’t he do the same thing again. Well, he might, but I have a feeling he won’t. Now, admittedly, that may not be the most scientific of answers, but the fact is that Surprise Package has improved enormously since Navan and, on the face of it, Ballywilliam Boy is running at the same level. He is a definite threat (in my view, the biggest one) but his form (he says, clutching at straws) does not appear as strong on a right-handed track so he has something to prove.
Serenity Grove won his first race easily and, as they say in the best pubs in Kildare, he could be anything. You have to be worried about any Henry DeBromhead horse at the moment so we will respect him but also plan to beat him.
The Morning After
Well, it’s now Sunday morning and my Saturday confidence has ‘done a Peter Fahey’ and has been replaced by a sense of foreboding. My erstwhile confidence (look – if I can say ‘thus’ I can say ‘erstwhile’) is meandering into a state of ready resign. It’s the first race so we don’t have to wait too long to meet our fate.
Just kidding! Bet I fooled you there! We are going to win! Lump on!!!!
Hope to check in later!