*****UPDATE*****
Sam Ewing, who was scheduled to ride Chosen Comrade, sustained a broken collarbone in a fall yesterday and will not be able to ride today. This is extremely disappointing to Sam, who has not had any luck with injuries in the last two months; this after a tremendously successful Christmas period. This game is a great leveller!
Sam has done a lot of work on Chosen Comrade, so it is disappointing all around. We have moved quickly to secure the services of Donagh Meyler, who is an excellent jockey and currently lies 4th in the Irish jockeys championship. Sam and Donagh are good friends, and I am sure Sam will be sharing his knowledge and, just as importantly, his confidence in regard to Chosen Comrade. We will be well represented by Donagh and I wish Sam a quick and full recovery.
Chosen Comrade arrived at the racecourse at 4am on Tuesday morning. This was about 9 hours later than planned, but much better than if we had planned to travel on Sunday. A broken ferry ramp caused significant delays at Holyhead and caused some horses to be at sea for over six hours, and many were rerouted to Liverpool. Fortunately, Ber was all over it and, as we had always planned to travel on Monday, made some changes and arranged for us to take the Rosslare-Pembroke ferry at 8 pm.
This was her yesterday morning around 9 am with ‘not a bother on her’ and clearly very excited.
Getting her out helped her to settle down and she ate up and drank loads of water afterwards. By the evening, it was as if she had been there all of her life.
We will have no excuses. She looks great, the ground has come right for us, and the distance is perfect. I have absolutely no idea why she is such a long price (66/1 in many places); it’s actually irritating: the extent to which she has been dismissed. I will be very surprised if she doesn’t outrun those odds, and by some margin.
It's impossible to be confident; it is Cheltenham, after all, and the racing is just so competitive. I just want her to be able to show how good she is (or isn’t, I guess) and to come back safe and sound.
We are having dinner tonight with Peter and Ber, and tomorrow we will be joined by Ian,Cob, and Matthew to re-form the Sandown Six; the six of us who travelled to watch Surprise Package win the Imperial Cup. We can only dream of a similar outcome.
Thoughts on the other runners
Bambino Fever
The time of her win at Fairyhouse (beating the same horse but the same distance as in her first run) was extremely slow. It was over 7 lengths per furlong slower than Proactif in the Juvenile hurdle and around four lengths per furlong slower than the 3m handicap run straight afterwards. He position in the market is based on her bumper form (all times were comparatively slow on the day) and that makes her vulnerable in my opinion
Old School Outlaw
While she had a fitness advantage against Bambino Fever, her win in the Solerina was an improved performance. To my mind, she should be favorite. That being said, she has to prove herself on better ground. Elliott has said she needs/will need a longer trip so she may be vulnerable on faster ground (although, on pedigree, she should be able to cope with a faster surface)
Out of Presenting, she should not be inconvenienced by better ground, although she is a big mare. The bigger issue is distance, and there is little doubt that longer distances will suit better; she could be outpaced
The four-year-olds
Four-year-olds have a terrible record in this race. However, to put that into context, there have only been 9 four-year-olds of the 179 runners in the past 10 years. Most of them were poor and went off at long prices. The best performance came from Galileo Dame, who went off a single-figure price last year and finished sixth. Now that Narciso Has has come out of the Triumph, Selma de Vary and Highland Crystal have gone there leaving Charme de Faust and Manganese in this race. They seem decent types, particularly Manganese, who I think could perform thebest of the four-year-olds. One who was always planning to run here is Mille Et Une Vies (Skelton), but all of her form has been on very soft ground, and she has not yet run in the UK. That is always a difficult transition, so she will do well, even with the extra 10-pound allowance, to overcome it.
The top English runners
La Conquiere
Ben Pauling keeps saying how much speed she has, which leads me to believe she has very little speed. She is probably the best of the English, but I suspect it will all be a bit too quick for her on the day. I’ll be honest, I have been keen to dismiss her all season, so maybe I am being unfair.
Kingston Queen
Her form ties in very closely with White Noise based on their Warwick run on heavy ground. To my mind, they both need a longer distance and do not have the pace for this race. A Path To Ronda failed to frank the form at Kelso ; struggling to win over 2m despite starting 1/10!
Jackie Hobbs
Needs further.
Other Irish Horses
Carrigmoornaspruce & Full of Life
Carrigmoornaspruce has changed ownership – not sure that will make her run faster though. Ran well in the G1 at Christmas but was flattered after Talk The Talk’s fall. She picked up the pieces like a Quarterback throwing two touchdowns when losing by 30 points with two minutes left. Her defeat by Full of Life at Down Royal either shows how good that one is, or shows her level. DeBromhead blamed himself afterwards for running Full of Life over the wrong distance. I would be inclined to take that with a pinch of salt and suggest it is more likely he was trying to make sense of it all. I could be wrong, and Carrigmoornaspruce does worry me a little, but they just may be much of a muchness.
Amen Kate
If Sam continues to choose our horse over her, I am happy to go with that and don’t need to add anything else.
Willie Mullin’s Other Runners
Diamond Du Berlais had the one run at Ludlow, She won easily (as many of this field would have done). I just don’t see it.
Future Prospect won well, but this is a big step up. May well be capable of making the jump, so would not totally rule out
Place De La Nation seems as slow as a boat to me and would be better off in a Festival handicap over a longer distance (she is also entered in the MGM cup)
Blue Velvet has been running ok on heavy ground but did show some bumper form on good ground. May be better suited to longer distances
The other horses Al Fonce, Louve D’Irlande, Scavenger’s Reign and St.Irene do not appear good enough.