Chosen Comrade runs at Listowel on Saturday in a Mares Conditions Hurdle. I have my own opinions on her chance but, honestly, why would anyone take any notice of me? A much more legitimate and knowledgeable judge exists, and I am happy to defer to greater knowledge. Scarily, I have been asking ChatGPT about Chosen Comrade, and it is fair to say that it is objective. These are its latest opinions about Saturday’s race:
Revised shape of the race
The contest now looks much more concentrated around four mares:
Murcia
Royal Hollow
Chosen Comrade
Grainne A Chroi
After that, there’s a fairly noticeable drop-off on ratings and recent form.
That is genuinely positive for Chosen Comrade because:
she no longer has to fend off an improving low-weight mare
fewer runners means less traffic and cleaner jumping opportunities
the race may become more tactical and controlled
Does this help or hurt tactically?
Probably helps overall.
Initially, Samba Train looked like a mare who:
could travel prominently
force a proper pace
and potentially expose weaknesses in others
Without her:
there’s less guaranteed pressure on the front end
pace could become steadier
That’s mildly concerning because a crawl-and-sprint setup probably favours Murcia and Royal Hollow more than Chosen Comrade.
However:
the reduced competitiveness of the race likely outweighs that concern.
Royal Hollow becomes even more significant
Honestly, with Samba Train out, I think Royal Hollow becomes the most dangerous rival relative to market expectation.
Why?
tactically straightforward
race-fit
receives weight from Murcia
likely to get ideal track position
In a small-field mares hurdle at Listowel, that profile is dangerous.
Chosen Comrade’s chance now
I’d revise her slightly upward.
Before:
interesting contender
Now:
very realistic top-3 chance
plausible winning chance if Murcia underperforms
Especially when you combine:
the 8lb pull from Murcia and Grainne A Chroi
The possible lung inflammation excuse at Cheltenham
a much calmer race environment
reduced field depth
My updated probabilities
Horse
Win chance
Murcia
32%
Royal Hollow
26%
Chosen Comrade
22%
Grainne A Chroi
12%
Others combined
8%
That’s actually a fairly open race by mares hurdle standards.
Final thought
If Chosen Comrade cannot get competitive in this setup, then questions become more legitimate about her ceiling over hurdles.
But if she:
travels strongly
jumps cleanly
and finishes off her race
…then the Cheltenham run will increasingly look like an excusable outlier rather than a true measure of her ability.
I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this although I am concerned my friend has been dismissive of a couple of horses. My biased view of the opposition is as follows:
Murcia – The class horse but has been below-par the last few runs
Grainne A Chroi – Not suited by the weight conditions and surely needs much further on the likely good ground
Royal Hollow – Should act on the ground and the distance. However, looked lacking in pace at Killarney and may struggle when it gets competitive
Run For Mahler – some form lines would provide confidence, but has not run for 218 days, so may need this outing
Swing Davis – last two runs have been over fences, and the balance of hurdle form is not strong enough.
Katherine and On A Diamond. The former ran (poorly) on Wednesday, so may not turn out again, and the latter does not appear good enough.
And, finally, the one you have been waiting for:
Chosen Comrade
The BAL report
We managed to find an excuse after Cheltenham. We could not understand why she ‘cut out’ so quickly. We used a galloping scope, but that did not show an issue, so we then conducted a BAL exam. This exam showed lung inflammation that almost certainly had been present at Cheltenham. It is often caused by strong exercise, travel, and new stabling; all of which were factors at Cheltenham. It’s a bit like asthma for horses, and it does require treatment and ongoing oversight to prevent a recurrence. In effect, she needed a nebulizer and medication. We have tested her since then, and it appears we are on top of the issue, but you never know until the race.
A BAL report (or, lung wash to the rest of us) does what it says on the tin. This was the report we received (the test was two weeks after Cheltenham) and it shows low Lymphocytes. The impact of this is as follows:
A low lymphocyte count (lymphopenia) does not directly impair a horse's athletic mechanics, but it severely compromises their immune system. This leaves the horse vulnerable to viral and bacterial infections, which significantly reduces overall stamina, decreases exercise tolerance, and leads to poor performance
I would be the first to say that we can’t keep making excuses, but, as far as Saturday is concerned, let’s take the view that there have been explanations for poor runs and keep the faith
Sam Ewing has been very happy with her over the last few weeks, so we are as confident as we can be and look forward to seeing what she can do on Saturday.
(As an aside, Sam has a ride at Tramore at 5.23pm on Saturday. I have no idea how he is going to get there in time and dare not ask him!)
I will see Chosen Comrade tomorrow morning and will be out with Peter and Ber tomorrow night. We are eating early, so everyone should be fully refreshed for the 2.06pm on Saturday. I will make an early start from Kildare, and because I want to watch PSG thrash Arsenal, I am planning to stay in Tralee as it is a 5 pm kick-off.
Wish us luck on Saturday. It will either be the start or the possible end of a dream (excuses excepted, of course!)