It’s going to be a beautiful day in Tipperary and we have got extra SPF 15 for Bay of Freedom; yes..horses do get sunburnt. He’s spending so much time outdoors these days that he’s actually got sunburnt on his neck although I do have to admit that the slightly lighter shade of brown was a great relief given Peter’s “ his neck is yellow” comment had me expecting some banana colour. I was more interested that his tail seems to have got longer; either that or he’s now 14.2 hands tall.
At the time of writing (10.50am) Prince Garyantle has not been taken out of the race despite running yesterday at Limerick (finished 6th). Given that he would set a good pace, and I have doubts about Cap D’Aubois stamina, I hope he does run and it would give us a good lead. There are some strange moves in the betting with Gladiator King out to 16/1 from 6/1 with Bay of Freedom pretty solid at 7/1 and 8/1.
The biggest surprise for me is how strong the favourite (Cap D’Aubois) is; it has to be the Mullins/Walsh factor as, based on form, you couldn’t justify the price. There is nothing on either side of his pedigree to suggest he wants more than 2 or 2 ¼ miles; his best form has been on really soft ground and his form after an absence (he has been off for 6 months) is uninspiring. Even when he won in France the 2nd and 3rd were both pulled up on their next outings. He has raced three times in Ireland: the first time he was last and was 18 lengths behind a 119 rated horse; in his next race he was 2nd(of 3) beaten by an easy winner but, admittedly, in front of Swamp Fox who has won a couple of decent races recently. The thing is that Swamp Fox had run a lot prior to that race and was probably ready for a break (he was off for four months afterwards); he had also run just the day before and the ground was heavy which he is not suited by. All in all, you can conclude that Swamp Fox was well below form that day. On his most recent outing Cap D’Aubois ran ok in a pretty hot handicap at Leopardstown; he never threatened and ran on at the one pace to finish 11th of 20. I think he’s a pretty poor favourite; he may win but 4/9 (you put on nine euros to win four euros) is a crazy price.
Ber gave me the good news yesterday: she’s not going to be there! Please let me explain why it is good news to be missing her wonderful company : basically, in the absence of Kim, she’s not a good omen for his runs in Ireland.
A few simple questions will determine the facts:
How many times has Bay of Freedom won?
How many times was Ber not there?
When she was there did Kim attend as well?
What happened when she was there and Kim was not?
He ran his two worst races (at Galway and at Naas)
Please enjoy the race on TV Ber and I look forward to your congratulatory phone call and text!
I have to go because Homes under Hammer is starting (let’s hope this is an episode without Dion Dublin)
I will update later!