To misquote Dickens: “it might be the best of hours or the worst of hours”; and , instead of A Tale of Two Cities it will actually be a story of two cities and a small town.
What on earth am I talking about? Well, on Monday, December 27th Peter has fancied horses running in the 2.05 Limerick (Freedom to Dream); 2.20 Leopardstown (Suprise Package) and the 2.50 at Chepstow (The Big Dog). The latter is the big race, the grand plan (according to the Racing Post), a plan that has been in the making for nine months and one that will culminate in The Big Dog attempting to win the Welsh Grand National. In the space of one short hour, Peter could have an across the card treble or just one winner or three horses that have run well but just couldn’t do it. My very fervent Christmas wish is that it is the former and not just because that would give me two winners. Yes, that would be absolutely fine but, almost more importantly, wouldn’t it be great for Peter and Ber to have a day like that? We can only hope at this stage; the work, as they always say, has been done so now it is up to the racing gods (as well as the ground, a few dozen other horses and three jockeys)
Let’s start with The Big Dog. Peter is traveling to Wales in the middle of a pandemic to saddle the horse: what does that tell you? Well, it tells you that he is crazy, but it could indicate a level of focus and intent that the betting pubic would be well advised to note. I am not giving anything away here as Mr Fahey has been quoted in every publication going (ranging from the Irish Field to Keeping Large Pets magazine) saying how much he fancies The Big Dog and that the race is the perfect race for him. So insistent has been this cry, that one of pundits on a racing podcast used Peter’s enthusiasm as the reason for selecting the horse. His rationale went like this:
“I have noticed that when Irish trainers are bullish about their UK raiders, they always seem to get it right. Remember when Michael Winters said Chatham Street Lad would win at Cheltenham and he sluiced up? That’s because they know how their horses compare and know where to place them. Peter Fahey has been equally bullish for weeks about The Big Dog and that is why I am selecting him”
I about fell off my chair! Regular readers of this blog will know that Peter’s confidence declines as the race approaches. If he isn’t confident 40 days before the race then , by the time of the race, he will have moved to the top of the stand ready to jump off after the horse (as now expected) is pulled up. I deliberately have not spoken to Peter about how he is feeling today (D-day minus 3) but, if I were to hazard a guess, he would be thinking the ground is too fast, if only Jamie Codd could ride and that he might as well cancel his travel plans to Wales. This is all par for the course and my only advice is for Peter to force himself to saddle up the horse and let him take his chance; he may surprise you (although not the ‘November’ Peter who just knew he would win!)
Perhaps, Peter should remember another Dickens quote: “Happiness is a gift and the trick is not to expect it, but to delight in it when it comes.”
Alarmingly, Peter is still feeling pretty bullish about Freedom to Dream and Suprise Package. That being said, I was relieved to hear Peter say the following of Freedom to Dream this morning: “I think he should get the trip (almost 3 miles) but the ground could be a concern. It’s going to be soft or heavy and I know I’ve always said he needs three miles and heavy ground but you never know”
That’s right Peter, you do never know and the worst time to ask you is just before the race so off you go to Chepstow and I will speak to you after the race.
Freedom to Dream’s race is a Grade 2 and has been won or participated in by some very good horses (including Faugheen). There’s nothing of that calibre in this year’s renewal and we have to have half a chance. It’s difficult to know where we are with him; Peter has always considered him a good horse but none of the horses he beat at Punchestown have run since so it’s difficult to know what the form amounts to. A couple of them were spoken of in high regard by their trainers before the race so you’d like to think they are nice horses. It was our first run for almost two years and he has definitely improved significantly since; we deserve to take our chance. Kevin (Sexton) will be riding him and we are hopeful.
Freedom to Dream’s race is at 2.05 and then at 2.20 we have decided to run Suprise Package 130 miles away at Leopardstown. This added a previously unforeseen financial burden: we only have one set of my racing colours so we had to move quickly to commission a second set so both jockeys could be appropriately outfitted. Once we remembered to get them made, they were turned around in about 5 hours. That is amazing; it would have taken three weeks at Saks!
Suprise Package ran really well at Navan last weekend and looked the likely winner for most of the race. He jumped the last in front and then was ‘swallowed’ up and finished 7th; a finishing position which belies his performance. Monday will be his last run before the Spring but we were keen to take our chance. It is back to 2 miles but the outer track at Leopardstown requires stamina and we think that and the shorter trip in a fast run race will really suit him. We have booked Mike O’Connor to ride him. Mike’s a conditional jockey with Henry DeBromhead and is a good rider. He’s had a good season so far with 23 winners and he is good value for his 5 pound claim. Suprise Package is a very good jumper but he made a mess of the last two flights at Navan; when you try to organize him he ‘puts down’ and gets too close to the hurdle; Mike will just trust him and let him jump away.
So, there you have it. The hour between 2pm and 3pm on Monday is a big one for the Leech’s but a far bigger one for the Fahey’s. We can only hope to be reminded of yet more wise words from our favourite author: “And O there are days in this life, worth life and worth death.”
It just leaves me to wish every one of you and your families a wonderful Christmas, Happy Holidays (if you’re American) and a fantastic New Year. Stay safe and happy; there is a lot to look forward to. Or, as the man who is well and truly in my head right now, once said:
The year end brings no greater pleasure then the opportunity to express to you season's greetings and good wishes. May your holidays and new year be filled with joy.