I think I may have just made a big mistake. I ‘WhatsApped’ Peter earlier and indicated my inclination to invest wisely on Suprise Package in the Red Mills final at Punchestown tomorrow. He was 33/1 at the time and that seemed a pretty tasty each way price; especially when they are paying four places.
Unfortunately, my UK bookies runner (let’s call him Ian) was otherwise engaged for a couple of hours, so I waited patiently before we spoke. When we did, I indicated that I would not be surprised if the 33/1 didn’t last much longer both because of what you will read in this blog and the fact that I had pointed out this bookmaking anomaly to the ever shrewd Mr.Fahey and, by extension, anyone he might be speaking to today (and he speaks to a lot of people).
Update : Having just spoken to Peter, he has stated, under oath, that he has not spoken to anyone about him today and has not backed him. I assume he must be just walking around with an expectant smile on his face and people are thinking: “haven’t seen that look since Peregrine Run won his maiden” (Little do they know that, on that occasion, it was not a smile; just pure unadulterated tension)
Two minutes after I spoke to Ian, I received a WhatsApp message from him which indicated that 18/1 was the best he could do. A frantic review of the Oddschecker site revealed that the price had shortened everywhere with a couple of bookmakers even going as short as 12/1. Luckily, we were on a group chat so another friend (let’s call him Matthew) suggested he could get 22/1 with his bookie, but it would only be for three places. I reluctantly recommended he take 20/1 but with four places.
The more astute of you may be wondering why Peter would even be interested in the price of Suprise Package when he has an even more strongly fancied horse in the race (Born Patriot). Good question: an even better one is “why would he be interested in any prices after the Spring he has had with Belfast Banter?” For people not following racing, Belfast Banter has now added a Grade 1 win to his Cheltenham Festival victory and has turned into a completely different horse in the process: one who just wants to win. I am sincerely hope that Born Patriot runs a great race tomorrow and that he should feel no disgrace in coming 2nd to Surprise Package; after all, it would be nice for Feargal to give another owner a look-in!
Let me explain why we are even in the Red Mills Final. First of all, qualification was pretty simple: we just had to run in a qualifier. Our qualifier was at Thurles and was when he came in second last and we wondered what on earth we had bought. There were no thoughts about turning up at the Punchestown festival after that race, I can tell you!
It was after he ran at Fairyhouse the last time, that we started to think of options. It’s fair to say that having beaten a 121 rated horse (winner since – but poor race) by 4 lengths off level weights we were unlikely to be getting a rating of 105; it made us think we had nothing to lose by targeting this race. First of all, a literal interpretation of the run would put us at a mark of, at least, 121. Factor in that we do not carry a penalty for having won a race and that we get a four pound allowance for having cost under $15000 when first sold and this means we have an adjusted rating at 12 stone (168 pounds) of 130. Not all of the horses have a rating, but most do and, of those, only two, Heather Rocco (134) and Feelgood Island (131), have a higher adjusted rating. Those horses are currently priced at 2/1 and 6/1 respectively. That’s a long way away from 33/1!
Then factor in that, for the first time, we have our perfect combination of ground conditions and race distance and you can start to see why we are looking forward to the race. We also happen to think he has come on from his last run and is in rare old form at the yard.
At the end of the day, he might not be good enough but, right now, on Tuesday evening, I am giving myself permission to be excited and am genuinely looking forward to the race. If we don’t win, then we’ll turn our minds to winning a maiden hurdle somewhere; after all, he was bought to be a summer horse.
Finally, there’s been a lot of talk about prize money levels in Britain and Ireland recently and why that might be a factor in all of the best horses being in Ireland. I will just say this: if we win tomorrow we will win 40000 pounds – that is more than the winning values of all of the seven races at Uttoxeter on Saturday combined! In fact, we could come third tomorrow and win more than two winners combined would win on Saturday at Uttoxeter.
Sorry, that got me fired up. It wasn’t finally either! Peter has had a great Spring and it is great that he has a Cheltenham and Grade 1 winner. However, he has not yet won a Final of a series at the Punchestown Festival and that is a glaring omission from his resume. I hope we can do something about that tomorrow!
Wish us luck!
Ps In case you’re interested: The horse I am most scared of is Calthor and I have a lot of respect for the favorite and also Breakeven.